FYI, BTC is at $8,814.50 as I write.
Wolf Of Wall Street Says Bitcoin Could Hit $50K Before… | News | Cointelegraph
I believe that bitcoin will retain historical value, similar to the way that a one or two letter .com address still has value, but lacks the robustness necessary for a fully convertible, safe, efficient cryptocurrency.
Any cryptocurrency must be backed by something beyond math. Although extracting gold from the ground and refining it requires energy, once the gold his mined, the energy intensity required to convert it drops exponentially. Bitcoin does not have this feature. It will always require that we have 100% access to sufficient energy. Although the same could be said for the old, in that it would be useless without electricity, gold at least has some practical values that a long string of numbers does not.
When a sovereign decides to tie a commodity (probably gold in a cryptoruble, maybe something with energy, but you run into the consumption problem unless it…nope, not gonna work long term, re: Petrodollar) to a currency unit, the whole story changes.
Russia remains my bet. She has less to lose than any of the other players.
India couldn’t pull this off without a miracle. The only chance would be a grassroots gold backed coin that overwhelmed the sclerotic bureaucracy, but that is some French revolution bullshit.
Nigeria could potentially pledge mineral and oil rights, and has some unique features that might make it possible.
China is a Potemkin economy. It is driven more by policy and diktat than any country in history, under a veneer of “capitalism “. Although it is very possible they could still default and convert everything to a gold backed cryptoyuan, such a move would suddenly turn a family treasure of a few coins into a small fortune, activating community reinvigoration, it’s doubtful it would fix the housing issue, the overcapacity, or the transition into a consumer economy in under a generation. It is possible, though!
Swiss leaders are so deep into the EU/EBC project that such a thing is unthinkable, which means that they have probably crafted backup plans. It’s just that these back up plans will be ignored. The Germans, Norwegians, and Finns have probably had a few meetings about it.
Russia has the least to lose, and the most to gain. The fact that they are settling trade contracts in gold with China, and trading oil for gold with China and Iran, and even trying to help their slower and less worldly little brother India, dying brother SAfrica and beleaguered brother Brazil, they can be banded together under a gold cryptoruble that leaves them all on somewhat equal footing.
India and China have enough gold to easily adopt it as a currency IF their leaders see the benefits, while SAfrica has enough that at renormalized prices ($8-20k/oz) to reopen many mines. Brazil has enough unexplored deposits to make it a player as well.
Even if the Russians call it the BRICScoin, and only allow verifiable gold to enter the system, they will become the richest per capita on earth. The government has 5800 tons, and individuals have just as much or more.